Macroeconomics / Economic Growth Study 01 · AI & Labor
Above the water,
and beneath it.
What AI actually touches when you look beneath Silicon Valley: modeling 151M workers, 923 occupations, and 32,000 skills across 12 major industries and 12 North American regional economies.
Workbench Study ST-01 · Grounded in the MIT / Oak Ridge National Laboratory Project Iceberg skill-exposure framework and North American NAICS occupational matrices.
01 / The Iceberg split
Why visible tech jobs are only 2.2% of the story — and 11.7% sits underwater.
Headlines track AI through software engineers and data centers — the 2.2% visible tip. Project Iceberg maps 32,000+ occupational skills across 923 occupations and finds 11.7% of total wage value (~$1.2 trillion) in submerged cognitive, administrative, financial, and analytical tasks inside non-tech industries.
■ Visible tip (direct tech/computing adoption)■ Submerged Iceberg (skills-centered cognitive/admin exposure)
Direct AI & software adoption in ICT, cloud, and computing payrolls (W_surface / W ≈ 2.2% of national wage bill).
🧠 Mental Map: § 2.3.1 Macroeconomics / Economic Growth ↗Skills-centered cognitive, administrative, financial, and analytical task exposure inside traditional non-tech sectors (W_submerged / W ≈ 11.7%).
🧠 Mental Map: § 2.3.1 Macroeconomics / Economic Growth ↗Total share of North American wage value where frontier AI models overlap occupational tasks (s_surface + s_submerged = 13.9%; 86.1% human moat).
🧠 Mental Map: § 2.3.1 Macroeconomics / Economic Growth ↗The Iceberg Ratio Λ = s_submerged / s_surface (11.7% / 2.2% = 5.32×), measuring how much hidden non-tech exposure exceeds visible software roles.
🧠 Mental Map: § 2.3.1 Macroeconomics / Economic Growth ↗| Sector | Jobs % | GDP % | Median wage | Visible % | Submerged % | Total % | High wipeout-risk tasks | Durable human moat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 · Information, Software & Media | 2.1% | 5.5% | $104,000 | 16.8% | 26.4% | 43.2% | Routine coding, QA boilerplate, localization, tier-1 support, and ad-ops scheduling. | Systems architecture, novel product direction, proprietary data negotiation, and security accountability. |
| 52 · Finance, Insurance & Real Estate | 6.0% | 20.7% | $84,000 | 4.2% | 28.6% | 32.8% | Underwriting packets, claims triage, KYC/AML document review, routine financial modeling, and reconciliation. | Fiduciary sign-off, complex deal structuring, regulatory relationship management, and physical asset appraisal. |
| 54 · Professional, Scientific & Technical | 7.4% | 8.1% | $96,000 | 6.9% | 27.1% | 34.0% | Junior legal discovery, contract redlining, standard CAD drafting, tax prep, and market-research synthesis. | Wet-lab experimentation, courtroom advocacy, P.Eng. stamp liability, and ambiguous client problem-framing. |
| 31-33 · Manufacturing (Advanced & Process) | 8.3% | 10.3% | $61,000 | 1.4% | 11.8% | 13.2% | ERP supply-chain scheduling, quality-log reporting, vendor invoicing, and routine BOM procurement. | Line maintenance, die/tooling setup, physical process troubleshooting on the shop floor, and safety lockouts. |
| 62 · Healthcare & Social Assistance | 14.1% | 8.6% | $63,000 | 0.9% | 10.4% | 11.3% | Medical coding (ICD-10), prior-authorization paperwork, intake transcription, and shift rostering. | Bedside nursing, surgical & emergency intervention, physical therapy, and high-trust patient care. |
| 92 · Public Administration & Government | 4.8% | 11.4% | $72,000 | 1.1% | 15.9% | 17.0% | Permit intake verification, benefits eligibility screening, freedom-of-information redaction, and case summaries. | First-responder policing/fire, statutory adjudication, public hearings, and field inspections. |
| 61 · Educational Services | 8.9% | 5.2% | $59,000 | 1.3% | 12.6% | 13.9% | Standardized grading, syllabus/worksheet drafting, admissions paperwork, and registrar scheduling. | In-room classroom management, childhood socialization, hands-on lab instruction, and mentorship. |
| 42-45 · Retail & Wholesale Trade | 12.8% | 11.9% | $44,000 | 1.2% | 10.9% | 12.1% | Call-center order tracking, catalog copywriting, demand forecasting sheets, and automated checkout. | Floor merchandising, complex B2B technical sales, loss prevention, and last-yard stocking. |
| 48-49 · Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | 5.1% | 4.9% | $58,000 | 0.8% | 8.7% | 9.5% | Freight brokerage matching, customs manifest filing, dispatch routing, and billing audit. | Heavy-haul driving in adverse weather, high-voltage line repair, marine/rail operations, and physical loading. |
| 21 · Energy, Mining & Oil/Gas Extraction | 1.6% | 3.4% | $89,000 | 1.5% | 9.8% | 11.3% | Seismic log pre-screening, reservoir simulation setup, land-lease clerical compliance, and SCADA reporting. | Rig/wellhead operations, pipeline maintenance, field geology, and hazardous-environment turnaround crews. |
| 23 · Construction & Civil Infrastructure | 6.1% | 4.4% | $62,000 | 0.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | Quantity takeoffs, routine bid estimation, RFIs, and progress-billing paperwork. | Unstructured job-site carpentry, electrical, plumbing, ironwork, crane operation, and municipal inspection. |
| 72 · Accommodation, Food & Recreation | 9.4% | 3.6% | $34,000 | 0.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | Reservation bots, drive-thru voice ordering, and multi-property revenue pricing. | Line cooking, table hospitality, housekeeping, live events, and culinary craft. |
02 / Inside the industries
How the six occupational role families divide every sector.
An industry is not a single job. Manufacturing is 54% skilled trades and plant operators (low AI overlap), but 25% analytical engineering and clerical procurement/scheduling (high submerged overlap). Healthcare is 56% hands-on clinical care, yet 18% administrative billing, coding, and intake.
■ Analytical, Engineering & Tech (48.0% AI task overlap)■ Administrative, Clerical & Ops Support (48.5% AI task overlap)■ Management, Finance & Strategy (26.0% AI task overlap)■ Sales, Intake & Client Service (24.2% AI task overlap)■ Skilled Trades, Plant & Transport (4.9% AI task overlap)■ Hands-On Clinical, Site & Hospitality (3.8% AI task overlap)
| Sector | Analytical, Engineering & Tech | Administrative, Clerical & Ops Support | Management, Finance & Strategy | Sales, Intake & Client Service | Skilled Trades, Plant & Transport | Hands-On Clinical, Site & Hospitality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information, Software & Media | 44% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 8% | 4% |
| Finance, Insurance & Real Estate | 26% | 28% | 18% | 22% | 2% | 4% |
| Professional, Scientific & Technical | 46% | 18% | 16% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
| Manufacturing (Advanced & Process) | 14% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 54% | 5% |
| Healthcare & Social Assistance | 10% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 56% |
| Public Administration & Government | 20% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 10% | 20% |
| Educational Services | 16% | 16% | 10% | 4% | 6% | 48% |
| Retail & Wholesale Trade | 6% | 14% | 10% | 42% | 18% | 10% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities | 8% | 14% | 8% | 5% | 58% | 7% |
| Energy, Mining & Oil/Gas Extraction | 22% | 10% | 10% | 4% | 48% | 6% |
| Construction & Civil Infrastructure | 8% | 9% | 11% | 4% | 64% | 4% |
| Accommodation, Food & Recreation | 2% | 7% | 9% | 14% | 8% | 60% |
03 / Interactive economy map
Click any North American region to inspect its sector mix and Iceberg ratio.
Select a province or US region on the map or buttons below to compare its GDP sector composition against its visible and submerged AI exposure.
| Region | Country | GDP (USD) | Workers | Visible % | Submerged % | Combined % | Sector mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON · Ontario (Toronto–Waterloo–Auto Corridor) | Canada | $830B | 8.0M | 2.6% | 13.1% | 15.7% | Finance & Insurance 22%, Manufacturing 13%, Prof. & Tech 11%, Healthcare & Ed 15%, Trade & Logistics 16%, Construction & Energy 9% |
| AB · Alberta (Calgary–Edmonton–Oil Sands) | Canada | $345B | 2.5M | 1.6% | 9.9% | 11.5% | Energy & Mining 26%, Construction & Engineering 13%, Finance & Corporate HQ 12%, Trade & Logistics 14%, Healthcare & Ed 13%, Manufacturing & Ag 11% |
| BC · British Columbia (Pacific Gateway) | Canada | $310B | 2.9M | 2.5% | 11.4% | 13.9% | Real Estate & Finance 21%, Trade, Port & Logistics 16%, Prof., Tech & Film 12%, Forestry, Mining & Energy 11%, Healthcare & Ed 15%, Hospitality 9% |
| QC · Quebec (Montreal–Aerospace & Hydro) | Canada | $440B | 4.5M | 2.4% | 12.0% | 14.4% | Manufacturing & Aerospace 15%, Finance & Admin 16%, Prof., AI & Tech 11%, Healthcare & Public 19%, Trade & Logistics 15%, Hydro & Resources 8% |
| CA · California (Bay Area–SoCal–Central Valley) | USA | $4,100B | 18.6M | 4.8% | 13.6% | 18.4% | Info, Software & Media 15%, Finance & Real Estate 20%, Prof. & Biotech 13%, Trade & Ports 14%, Healthcare & Ed 14%, Manufacturing & Ag 11% |
| TX · Texas (Houston–DFW–Austin Triangle) | USA | $2,650B | 14.2M | 2.3% | 11.2% | 13.5% | Energy, Refining &_Chem 17%, Manufacturing & Semis 12%, Trade & Logistics 16%, Finance & Corporate 16%, Prof. & Tech 11%, Construction 9% |
| NY · New York & Tri-State Corridor | USA | $2,250B | 9.8M | 3.4% | 15.8% | 19.2% | Finance & Insurance 29%, Prof., Legal & Media 16%, Healthcare & Ed 17%, Public Admin 10%, Trade & Real Estate 14%, Manufacturing 5% |
| GL · Great Lakes Manufacturing Belt (MI/OH/IL/IN) | USA | $3,150B | 19.4M | 1.6% | 11.9% | 13.5% | Manufacturing & Auto 19%, Finance, Insurance & HQ 17%, Trade, Rail & Logistics 16%, Healthcare & Ed 15%, Prof. & Engineering 10%, Agriculture 6% |
| NE · New England (Boston Biotech & Hartford Finance) | USA | $1,420B | 7.5M | 3.5% | 14.4% | 17.9% | Prof., Biotech & R&D 17%, Finance & Insurance 21%, Higher Ed & Healthcare 20%, Info & Software 9%, Precision Manufacturing 10%, Trade 11% |
| PNW · Pacific Northwest (Seattle–Portland) | USA | $1,180B | 6.1M | 4.4% | 12.5% | 16.9% | Cloud, Software & Retail HQ 18%, Aerospace & Manufacturing 13%, Trade, Ports & Timber 15%, Finance & Real Estate 17%, Healthcare & Ed 14%, Construction 8% |
| SE · US Southeast (Atlanta–Charlotte–Florida) | USA | $3,800B | 24.5M | 1.9% | 11.6% | 13.5% | Trade, Ports & Aviation 18%, Banking & Back-Office 18%, Hospitality & Tourism 14%, Healthcare 15%, Construction 10%, Auto & Aero Mfg 9% |
| MW · Mountain & Plains (CO/UT/NM/KS) | USA | $1,650B | 9.2M | 2.4% | 11.1% | 13.5% | Energy, Mining & Ag 15%, Aerospace, Defense & Labs 14%, Prof. & Tech 13%, Finance & Real Estate 16%, Healthcare & Ed 14%, Tourism & Trade 14% |
The evidence desk
Sources, LaTeX paper, and downloads.
- Framework: MIT & Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), The Iceberg Index: Measuring Skills-centered Exposure in the AI Economy (151M workers, 923 occupations, 32,000+ skills).
- Sector & role matrices: Synthesized from BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), BEA GDP-by-Industry, and Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey NAICS tables.
- Dedicated LaTeX paper: Read or download the compiled article at Economic Growth: The AI Iceberg Paper & PDF ↗.