Who pays the bill,
and who gets rewarded.

01 / Real tax burden vs. fiscal rewards

Population-normalized per-capita taxes paid vs. cash and healthcare/education transfers received (2024 CAD).

■ Real Gross Taxes Paid per Capita (2024 CAD)■ Real Fiscal Rewards Received per Capita (OAS/CPP/CCB + Healthcare & Education STiK)

To eliminate demographic bulge bias and inflation distortion, every cohort is normalized by its population count \(N_{g,t}\) and deflated to constant 2024 Canadian dollars. Prime-working-age Generation X (ages 45–60) and Millennials (ages 29–44) carry net fiscal burdens of −$18,580/capita (\(\Lambda = 0.41\times\)) and −$13,440/capita (\(\Lambda = 0.50\times\)), whereas Baby Boomers (61–79) and the Silent Generation (80+) receive net fiscal rewards of +$13,330/capita (\(\Lambda = 1.94\times\)) and +$24,440/capita (\(\Lambda = 3.68\times\)) driven by OAS/GIS, CPP payouts, and age-weighted CIHI healthcare Social Transfers in Kind ($14,042 to $24,800/capita).

02 / Tax instrument mix over time (1985–2025)

How income/payroll, sales (GST/HST), property tax, and sin/carbon excise shifted across eras.

Comparing Millennials in 2025 (ages 29–44) against Baby Boomers at the exact same life-cycle stage in 1990 (ages 26–44) reveals a +$7,040/capita (+35.5%) increase in real tax burden. In 1990, the combined employer-employee CPP payroll rate was 4.4% under a 5.8 : 1 worker-to-retiree support ratio, and neither the federal carbon levy nor vaping excise existed. In 2025, Millennials pay an 11.9%–13.9% enhanced CPP1/CPP2 payroll rate under a 3.4 : 1 support ratio, alongside higher shelter-driven property and sales taxes. Meanwhile, Baby Boomers (76% homeownership) pay the highest absolute municipal property tax ($2,640/capita), though it represents just 0.38% of their accumulated home equity versus 1.15% for leveraged young buyers.

■ Income & Payroll Tax (PIT + CPP/EI)■ Sales Tax (GST/HST/PST)■ Municipal Property Tax■ Fuel/Carbon, Alcohol & Vape Excise

03 / Commute times, carbon/fuel tax & youth vape excise

Why exurban housing geometry taxes Millennial/Gen X commuters while vaping excise targets Gen Z.

Indirect excise taxes exhibit the sharpest generational divergence in the entire tax code:

• Average Commute Duration & Fuel/Carbon Tax (Millennials & Gen X): Priced out of transit-dense urban cores by high home price-to-income ratios, Millennials (ages 29–44) and Gen X (ages 45–60) log the longest one-way commutes in Canada at 28.4 minutes (81.6% private auto share) and 27.6 minutes (84.8% auto share), compared with 21.8 minutes for Boomers at the same age in 1990. With a commute-to-carbon elasticity of \(\gamma = 1.34\), Millennials and Gen X pay $780 to $815/capita in gross road-fuel excise and carbon levies (and remain net payers of −$145 to −$185/capita even after quarterly Canada Carbon Rebates, whereas non-commuting seniors receive a +$115 to +$140 net rebate windfall).
• Vaping Excise Duty (Gen Z Concentration): Introduced in October 2022 ($1 per 2 mL) and hiked +12% in July 2024 with provincial harmonization (doubling to $2/2 mL in ON, QC, AB, BC), vaping excise falls 64.2% on Generation Z ($168/capita, where 30-day prevalence is 19.7% at ages 20–24 versus <1.5% among Boomers, concentration index \(CI = -0.54\)).

■ Annual Road-Fuel & Carbon Tax ($/capita)■ Annual Vaping Excise Duty ($/capita)● White marker = Mean One-Way Commute Duration (mins)

"""Reproducible Pandas analysis for ST-09: Taxes on Generations Over Time Periods (Real 2024 CAD/Capita)."""
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

# 1. Load Population-Normalized Generational Fiscal Accounting Table (StatCan DHEA, SHS, Census, CTNS & CIHI)
df = pd.read_csv("studies-gen-tax-cohorts.csv")
df["net_fiscal_reward_cad"] = df["totalRewardCad"] - df["totalTaxCad"]
df["reward_to_tax_ratio"] = (df["totalRewardCad"] / df["totalTaxCad"]).round(2)
df["indirect_excise_share_pct"] = (
    (df["salesTaxCad"] + df["propertyTaxCad"] + df["fuelCarbonCad"] + df["alcoholTaxCad"] + df["vapeTaxCad"])
    / df["totalTaxCad"] * 100
).round(1)

print("=== ST-09: Population-Normalized Generational Tax Burden vs. Fiscal Rewards (2024 CAD/Capita) ===")
print(df[["id", "totalTaxCad", "totalRewardCad", "net_fiscal_reward_cad", "reward_to_tax_ratio", "commuteMins", "fuelCarbonCad", "vapeTaxCad", "propertyTaxCad"]])

# 2. Age-Matched Life-Cycle Comparison: Millennials (2025, Ages 29-44) vs. Boomers (1990, Ages 26-44)
mill_2025 = df.loc[df["id"] == "MILL-2025"].iloc[0]
boom_1990 = df.loc[df["id"] == "BOOM-1990"].iloc[0]
burden_delta = mill_2025["totalTaxCad"] - boom_1990["totalTaxCad"]
commute_delta = mill_2025["commuteMins"] - boom_1990["commuteMins"]
print(f"\nYoung-Adult Life-Cycle Shift (2025 Millennials vs. 1990 Boomers at Same Age):")
print(f"  Real Gross Tax Delta: +${burden_delta:,.0f}/capita (+{burden_delta / boom_1990['totalTaxCad'] * 100:.1f}%)")
print(f"  One-Way Commute Delta: +{commute_delta:.1f} mins ({mill_2025['commuteMins']}m vs {boom_1990['commuteMins']}m) -> Fuel/Carbon Tax ${mill_2025['fuelCarbonCad']}/cap")